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"Surprise (Military science)"
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Just Wars and Moral Victories: Surprise, deception and the normative framework of European war in the later Middle Ages
By exploring the moral and legal context of medieval strategic thinking, this work explains how the use of surprise and deception could, in certain circumstances, be reconciled with the practise of chivalric warfare.
eBook
Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts
This study examines potential surprises in a great power conflict, particularly in the initial stages when the interaction of adversaries' technologies, prewar plans, and military doctrines first becomes manifest.
eBook
On Flexibility
This book addresses one of the basic questions in military studies: How can armies cope effectively with technological and doctrinal surprises—ones that leave them vulnerable to new weapons systems and/or combat doctrines? Author Meir Finkel contends that the current paradigm—with its over-dependence on intelligence and an all-out effort to predict the nature of the future battlefield and the enemy's capabilities—generally doesn't work. Based on historical case analysis of successful \"under-fire\" recovery and failure to recover, he identifies the variables that have determined these outcomes, and he presents an innovative method for military force planning that will enables armies to deal with the uncertainties of future wars \"in real time.\" His proposed method combines conceptual, doctrinal, cognitive, command, organizational, and technological elements to produce optimal battlefield flexibility and adaptability. He then demonstrates that, when properly applied, this method can eliminate most obstacles to overcoming battlefield surprises.
eBook
Responding to Capability Surprise
From a military operational standpoint, surprise is an event or capability that could affect the outcome of a mission or campaign for which preparations are not in place. By definition, it is not possible to truly anticipate surprise. It is only possible to prevent it (in the sense of minimizing the number of possible surprises by appropriate planning), to create systems that are resilient to an adversary's unexpected actions, or to rapidly and effectively respond when surprised.
Responding to Capability Surprise examines the issues surrounding capability surprise, both operational and technical, facing the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. This report selects a few surprises from across a continuum of surprises, from disruptive technologies, to intelligence-inferred capability developments, to operational deployments, and assesses what the Naval Forces are doing (and could do) about them while being mindful of future budgetary declines. The report then examines which processes are in place or could be in place in the Navy, the Marine Corps, and the Coast Guard to address such surprises. Today's U.S. naval forces continue to face a wide range of potential threats in the indefinite future and for this reason must continue to balance and meet their force structure needs. The recommendations of Responding to Capability Surprise will help to ensure more responsive, more resilient, and more adaptive behavior across the organization from the most senior leadership to the individual sailors, Marines, and Coast Guardsmen.
eBook
Stratagem
Out-of-print and out of the hands of military professionals for years, Artech House answers the demand, making the sought-after, classic work, Stratagem: Deception and Surprise in War, available once again. This timeless and widely cited volume offers professionals a model and template for studying and analyzing deception operations. Readers get an historical analysis of deception and surprise, over 100 real-world case studies, and a set of methods that underlie and pervade the entire book.
eBook
The Impenetrable Fog of War
Current trends suggest that the fog of war continues to make strategy an opaque enterprise notwithstanding enormous U.S. investments in high-tech weapons, intelligence capabilities, and homeland defense. This edited volume includes essays originally presented at the IISS Global Strategic Review, which was held in Geneva on September 7-9, 2007.
eBook
Seeing The Invisible: National Security Intelligence In An Uncertain Age
Intelligence is critical to ensuring national security, especially with asymmetric threats making up most of the new challenges. Knowledge, rather than power, is the only weapon that can prevail in a complex and uncertain environment awash with asymmetric threats, some known, many currently unknown. This book shows how such a changing national security environment has had profound implications for the strategic intelligence requirements of states in the 21st century.The book shows up the fallacy underlying the age-old assumption that intelligence agencies must do a better job of connecting the dots and avoiding future failures. It argues that this cannot and will not happen for a variety of reasons. Instead of seeking to predict discrete future events, the strategic intelligence community must focus rather on risk-based anticipatory warnings concerning the nature and impact of a range of potential threats. In this respect, the book argues for a full and creative exploitation of technology to support - but not supplant - the work of the strategic intelligence community, and illustrates this ideal with reference to Singapore's path-breaking Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) program.
eBook
Surprise
This report relates what professionals believe creates surprise, how they respond to it, and how the effects of surprise can be mitigated. RAND researchers interviewed representatives from 13 diverse professions and identified some common coping strategies, such as relying on past experience and trying to reduce the level of chaos in the environment.
eBook
The Combat Value of Surprise
Surprise is one of J. F. C. Fuller’s eight principles of war and is listed among the nine principles of war in the various editions of the U.S. Army’sField Manual 100-5: Operations.¹ It is also extensively discussed by Clausewitz, who calls it the “most powerful medium in the art of war.”² It is almost universally recognized that achieving surprise against an enemy force can serve as a powerful force multiplier. The engagements in the Dupuy Institute’s division-level database were already coded for surprise. This was a four-tier coding based on a choice of “no surprise,” “minor surprise,” “considerable surprise,”
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